做强国内大循环 对冲不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted China's economic resilience and growth potential amidst external uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of strengthening domestic circulation to counteract these challenges [1][2][3] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy grew by 5.3%, surpassing last year's growth of 5.0% and approaching the average growth rate of 5.5% during the first four years of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 32.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while the service retail sector grew by 5.1% [2] - Fixed asset investment for the same period was 32.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.5%, and a 4.2% increase when excluding real estate development [2] - The total import and export volume from January to September was 33.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4% [2] Technological Innovation - Significant technological advancements were noted in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, and quantum communication, contributing to high-quality development [2] - By 2025, China is expected to rank 10th in the global innovation index, with progress in building a strong intellectual property system [2] Economic Stability and Resilience - China's economic foundation is described as stable, with a large market capacity and strong industrial support, enabling effective domestic and international economic interactions [3] - The country possesses multiple advantages, including scale, market, talent, and innovation, alongside unique institutional benefits from its socialist market economy [3] - High savings rates among residents enhance the economy's ability to withstand fluctuations, contributing to its strong risk resistance [3] Policy Recommendations - The need for continuous improvement of policy tools to stabilize employment and the economy is emphasized, with a focus on timely implementation of policies based on changing circumstances [3] - The strategy should prioritize strengthening domestic circulation to mitigate uncertainties in international circulation, ensuring the successful completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and laying a solid foundation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]