港股早参丨鲍威尔最新讲话强化降息预期，机构称港股震荡后打开上行空间

Market Overview - On October 14, Hong Kong's three major indices collectively declined, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.73% to 25,441.35 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 3.62% to 5,923.26 points (marking a seven-day consecutive decline), and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreasing by 1.55% to 9,079.16 points [1] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a broad decline, while the metals industry opened high but closed low, and the semiconductor sector showed a notable pullback [1] - Key stocks such as Hua Hong Semiconductor fell over 13%, SMIC dropped nearly 8.5%, Kuaishou declined nearly 7%, Baidu Group fell nearly 5.5%, and Alibaba decreased nearly 4.5% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) closed down by 2.78% [1] Southbound Capital - On October 14, southbound capital net bought Hong Kong stocks worth 8.603 billion HKD, bringing the cumulative net purchase amount for the year to 119.8567 billion HKD, significantly exceeding last year's total net purchase [2] U.S. Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.44%, the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.16%, and the Nasdaq falling by 0.76% [3] - Notable gainers included Walmart, which rose nearly 5%, and Caterpillar, which increased over 4%, leading the Dow [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which tracks popular Chinese stocks, fell by 1.95% [3] - The Hang Seng Index ADR rose, closing at 25,667.98 points, an increase of 226.63 points or 0.89% compared to the Hong Kong close [3] Key Messages - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may end its balance sheet reduction process in the coming months to prevent liquidity issues in short-term funding markets, suggesting a potential shift in the Fed's quantitative tightening policy and reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut this month, with a 95.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool [4] - Baidu's annual important technology and product launch event, Baidu World 2025, is scheduled for November 13, focusing on three main themes: the depth of large model technology, the breadth of AI-native application ecosystems, and global perspectives on overseas strategies, seen as a critical milestone for Baidu's next decade [4] Short Selling Data - On October 14, a total of 658 Hong Kong stocks were short-sold, with total short selling amounting to 48.236 billion HKD. Notably, Alibaba, Xiaomi Group, and Tencent Holdings had the highest short selling amounts at 3.717 billion HKD, 2.634 billion HKD, and 2.457 billion HKD, respectively [5] Institutional Views - According to China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a short-term decline followed by a rebound in the fourth quarter, with an upward trend in the medium to long term. However, in the absence of new positive factors, the market may continue to fluctuate [6] - Marginal positive factors are anticipated to accumulate, driving the Hong Kong stock market upward, including the robust development of China's technology sector represented by AI, potential resolution of U.S.-China tariff issues, discussions on the "14th Five-Year Plan," and ongoing expectations for Fed rate cuts, which could facilitate foreign capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks [6] - The focus remains on sectors such as technology/AI, the internet, and non-ferrous metals [6] Hong Kong Stock ETFs - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) focuses on e-commerce and new consumption, covering relatively scarce new consumption sectors compared to A-shares [7] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets in China, encompassing relatively scarce technology leaders compared to A-shares [8]