Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in spot prices, with rebar and hot-rolled coil showing different trends in demand and supply dynamics [1][6]. Supply - Iron and steel production remains high, but there is a slight reduction due to environmental factors during the National Day holiday. The output of the five major steel products remains stable year-on-year, with a total output of 8.63 million tons as of October 8, showing a decrease of 40,000 tons month-on-month [3]. - Rebar production is at 2.03 million tons, down 36,000 tons from the previous month, while hot-rolled coil production is at 3.23 million tons, maintaining a high level [3]. Demand - Rebar demand has decreased year-on-year but shows seasonal improvement month-on-month. The holiday effect has led to a drop in demand by 950,000 tons to 1.46 million tons [4]. - Hot-rolled coil demand has increased year-on-year but remained stable month-on-month, with a holiday-related decline of 340,000 tons to 2.91 million tons [4]. Inventory - Inventory levels for the five major steel products have increased by 1.28 million tons to 16 million tons, with rebar inventory rising by 570,000 tons to 6.6 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory increasing by 320,000 tons to 4.12 million tons [5]. - Despite the increase in inventory, production levels are expected to remain above demand, leading to a projected year-on-year increase in inventory but a month-on-month decline [5]. Cost and Profit - The cost side shows a slight decline in coal mine operating rates and daily output due to the National Day holiday, with current production levels at historically low levels. Steel profits have significantly decreased from their high levels, with the profit ranking from high to low being billet, hot-rolled coil, rebar, and cold-rolled coil [2]. Market Outlook - Although steel demand is weak, there is cost support in the market. The focus for January contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil is on support levels around 3,000 and 3,200 respectively [6].
钢材：热卷累库较多 关注节后需求恢复情况
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-15 02:14