Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion due to rising trade concerns and geopolitical tensions, leading to a decline in the USD/JPY exchange rate below 151.50, with a focus on whether the 151.20 support level will hold [1] - Asian countries have announced special port fees on US vessels and tightened export controls, exacerbating fears of a deteriorating global trade environment, while President Trump threatens to impose tariffs up to 100% on goods from Asian countries [1] - The US government shutdown has entered its third week, with a temporary funding bill pushed by Republicans failing to pass, contributing to ongoing fiscal deadlock [1] Group 2 - The recent dissolution of the ruling coalition in Japan has created political uncertainty, leading to expectations that the Bank of Japan may delay its planned interest rate hikes, which could limit the appreciation of the yen [2] - Technical analysis indicates that after a strong upward trend, the USD/JPY exchange rate has paused, with a long bearish candle suggesting a potential reversal, which may lead to a rebound in the yen [3] - Key observation points for the USD/JPY exchange rate include 152.10 as a significant level, with support at 151.00, which is the high from August 1 and the low of the recent bearish candle [3]
避险需求推动日元走强 政治不确定性抑制上涨空间
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-15 03:20