避险资金流入能否助日元破局

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing downward pressure due to escalating US-China trade tensions, leading to a stronger demand for safe-haven currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The USD has weakened further, offsetting the recovery in risk sentiment, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve's statements and Japanese political developments for new trading incentives [1]. - Following a brief period of calm, global markets have re-entered a state of tension, with increased safe-haven demand reflected in the performance of the yen and franc compared to the USD [1]. - The outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate has shifted from bullish to cautious, as traders prefer the defensive attributes of the yen amid current uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - The potential for reaching agreements or extending tariff truce remains uncertain, with rising associated risks [1]. - The political instability in Japan, particularly due to the Komeito party's exit from the coalition government, is expected to impact the yen's performance, with the temporary National Assembly session postponed from October 15 to October 21 [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The USD/JPY exchange rate faces short-term downside risks, with key support levels identified at 151.40 and 151.15 [3]. - Additional technical support is noted at the 200-hour moving average of 151.27 and the psychological level of 151.00, while any rebound attempts may encounter significant resistance [3].