基本面利空持续发酵 国际原油价格弱势恐难改

Core Viewpoint - The international oil market has experienced significant declines in October, with Brent crude futures dropping to a low of $61.5 per barrel and WTI crude futures falling below $58 per barrel, marking a decline of over 5% for the month [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in international trade is causing fluctuations in market sentiment, impacting oil prices negatively [1][3]. - The global economy is showing signs of weak recovery without entering a recession, and the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts provide some liquidity support but do not change the bearish fundamentals for oil [1][4]. - Geopolitical factors, such as the recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza, have reduced the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported oil prices [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The oil market is facing increasing pressure from both supply and demand sides, with seasonal demand decline and ongoing production increases from OPEC+ [5][8]. - The market is currently in a state of oversupply, which is expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [1][5]. Price Support Levels - Analysts suggest that Brent crude futures may find support around the $60 per barrel mark, which corresponds to the marginal cost of U.S. shale oil production [7][8]. - The potential for a significant price increase exists if geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly in the context of winter conditions in Europe and renewed conflicts in the Middle East [7][8].