预算案困局，法国成欧洲“末节车厢”？

Core Points - The French government submitted the 2026 budget draft to the National Assembly, aiming to reduce public spending by approximately €35 billion, which is lower than the previous target of €43.8 billion set by the former government [1][3] - The budget draft includes targeted tax increases for large corporations while providing tax cuts for small and micro enterprises, alongside significant layoffs in the public sector and a freeze on pension payments [3] - The budget plan is based on optimistic economic assumptions, with concerns raised by the High Council of Public Finances regarding the feasibility of revenue and spending measures [3][4] Group 1 - The French budget deficit for 2024 is projected to be nearly double the EU's 3% limit, with debt-to-GDP ratio approaching 118%, ranking third among EU member states [4] - Political instability has hindered economic growth, leading to increased borrowing costs and cautious investor sentiment, with economic growth expected to drop from 1.4% in 2023 to 1.2% [4] - The French central bank predicts a significant slowdown in economic growth, estimating it will fall to just 0.6% this year [4] Group 2 - The government has faced strong opposition from both far-right and far-left parties, leading to impeachment motions against the current administration [3] - The Prime Minister announced a suspension of pension reform until January 2028, which is expected to increase fiscal pressure with additional spending projected at €400 million in 2026 and €1.8 billion in 2027 [3] - The ongoing political turmoil has resulted in a loss of parliamentary control, complicating efforts to implement budget cuts and stabilize public finances [4]