交易员豪赌美联储“超常规”降息 50基点，SOFR期权持仓量激增

Core Viewpoint - Traders are significantly betting that the Federal Reserve will implement at least one unconventional rate cut before the end of the year, with expectations for a more aggressive policy than currently anticipated by market observers [1] Group 1: Market Activity - Recent trading activity in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) indicates that the market is accumulating bets on a potential 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in upcoming meetings [1][4] - The SOFR options for December have seen a notable increase in open interest, suggesting a growing risk exposure among traders ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements [4] - Cash markets are showing bullish sentiment, with recent increases in U.S. Treasury prices leading to a drop in the two-year Treasury yield to around 3.5%, the lowest this year [4] Group 2: Options Trading Trends - There has been a surge in demand for call options structures that reflect a steeper rate cut path by the Federal Reserve than currently priced in the swap market, particularly for SOFR options expiring in December 2025, March 2026, and June 2026 [7] - The most active SOFR options include various call spreads, indicating a strong market belief in a 50 basis point cut during the Federal Reserve's policy meetings [7][9] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - A recent survey by JPMorgan Chase revealed that the neutral positioning among investors has reached its highest level in a month, with a decrease in short positions and stable long positions [4] - The skew in U.S. Treasury options indicates that traders are more willing to pay higher premiums to hedge against the risk of rising bond prices (falling yields), reflecting a shift in sentiment towards a more dovish outlook [12]