凌晨！美联储重磅发布！10月再降息已“板上钉钉”？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates again during the upcoming meeting on October 28-29, with a probability of 97.3% for a 25 basis point cut, as indicated by the latest Beige Book report and comments from Fed officials [1][5]. Economic Conditions - The latest Beige Book indicates a slight decline in overall consumer spending, while employment levels remain stable across regions. However, many employers are reducing staff through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand and ongoing economic uncertainty [2][4]. - The report highlights that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are contributing to rising overall inflation, with businesses struggling to balance absorbing costs versus passing them on to consumers [3][4]. Employment Market - The Beige Book notes that while the overall employment level is stable, many regions report increased layoffs or natural attrition. This is attributed to weak demand, persistent economic uncertainty, and increased investment in artificial intelligence [4][6]. - Some companies are finding it easier to recruit, while others still face challenges in hiring, indicating a mixed labor market [4]. Consumer Spending - Recent consumer spending has shown a slight decline, although luxury goods and travel expenditures from high-income groups remain strong. In contrast, middle and low-income groups are increasingly relying on discounts and promotions [4]. Federal Reserve Officials' Comments - Fed Governor Stephen Miran emphasized the need for a rate cut due to increased economic uncertainty from trade tensions, suggesting that the current policy has become more restrictive than previously thought [6]. - Miran supports the idea of two more rate cuts by the end of the year and has previously advocated for a larger cut of 50 basis points rather than just 25 [6]. Market Expectations - Financial markets are betting heavily on a rate cut in October, with only a 2.7% chance of maintaining the current rate and a 94.2% chance of cumulative cuts of 50 basis points by December [5][6].