中信证券：年底CPI同比有望明显回升

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities forecasts that the Producer Price Index (PPI) will record year-on-year changes of -2.9% and -2.0% in Q3 and Q4 of 2025, respectively [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year reading for September has rebounded to -0.3%, although the increase is slightly below market expectations [1] - The core CPI has shown a continuous increase for five months, marking the first time in nearly 19 months that the growth rate has returned to 1% [1] Price Trends - There is a notable divergence in price trends, with durable consumer goods and gold jewelry prices performing well, while service prices remain relatively weak [1] - Looking ahead, the effects of the pig cycle misalignment are expected to gradually weaken, leading to a significant rebound in the CPI year-on-year reading in Q4 of 2025 [1] Future Projections - Under a neutral scenario, the year-end CPI year-on-year reading is expected to reach a peak of around 1.0% [1]