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O'Keefe Stevens Advisory Q3 2025 Investor Letter
Seeking Alphaยท2025-10-16 01:00

Market Overview - The third quarter of 2025 was characterized by exuberant markets and rising speculation, with major U.S. equity indices reaching new highs despite stretched valuations [2][3] - The enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and cryptocurrencies significantly influenced risk assets, leading to concerns about potential bubble-like conditions [2][3][4] - AI-related companies saw rapid valuation increases as investors anticipated AI's transformative potential across various industries [3][4] AI and Cryptocurrency Trends - AI-linked companies propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to all-time highs, reflecting a strong investor appetite for AI-related investments [3] - Bitcoin surpassed the $100,000 mark and approached $120,000 by late Q3, contributing to a broader crypto market valuation of approximately $3.9 trillion [5] - The rapid inflows into crypto markets exemplify speculative behavior, raising concerns about volatility and the potential for sudden reversals [5][6] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a disciplined investment approach, focusing on genuine innovation while being cautious of extreme market pricing [2][6] - Historical precedents, such as the late-1990s tech boom, highlight the risks associated with "priced for perfection" scenarios, particularly in AI-related stocks [4][6] - The company aims to separate durable economic fundamentals from speculative narratives, maintaining a balanced stance amid market hype [6] Corning's Position - Corning has benefited from increased demand for fiber optics driven by AI, with its stock rising approximately 75% year-to-date [7] - The company is compared to its past during the dot-com boom, where it experienced extraordinary demand and soaring valuations, raising caution about current market conditions [8][9] - Corning's current valuation is near 36x earnings, which, while not at 2000 extremes, still raises concerns about sustainability given historical returns on equity [13] Portfolio Adjustments - The company exited positions in Donnelley Financial, Lazard, and Capstone Copper, while initiating a new holding in Topgolf Callaway Brands [19] - The decision to exit Donnelley Financial was based on concerns over market share loss to competitors, while Lazard's stock approached fair value [20][22] - Topgolf Callaway Brands was initiated due to its straightforward business model and potential for value realization through a possible sale [24][29]