Core Viewpoint - The recent quota policy from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has established a total quota of 96,600 tons for cobalt exports, with a base quota remaining unchanged at 87,000 tons, impacting major companies in the industry [1][2]. Quota Distribution - The quota distribution is as follows: - Luoyang Molybdenum Company (Luoyang Moly) received 36% of the quota, equating to an annualized 31,200 tons - Glencore received 22%, or 18,800 tons - Eurasian Resources received 12%, or 10,000 tons - The local company EGC received 6.5%, or 5,640 tons - Other Chinese companies such as Northern Mining received 5.5% (4,800 tons), Shengton Mining 2% (1,680 tons), and Huayou Cobalt 1.24% (1,080 tons) [2][3]. Policy Implications - The quota allocation aligns with expectations based on historical export volumes from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2024, although the allocation for EGC is notable given its lack of past exports [3]. - The introduction of a 10% royalty fee on sales value for companies receiving cobalt export quotas is expected to significantly increase local revenue [3]. Market Outlook - The total quota of 96,600 tons represents a 56% decrease compared to last year's exports of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a tighter supply-demand balance for cobalt [4]. - Current inventory levels are critical, with an estimated four months of supply across the industry chain, which could lead to increased price pressures as inventory is consumed [5]. Price Trends - As of October 13, cobalt prices have seen significant increases, with prices for cobalt sulfate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery-grade cobalt rising by 40%, 38%, and 29% respectively from September 22 to October 13 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The industry is expected to experience upward price movement due to ongoing inventory depletion and low stock levels, with a long-term view suggesting a potential increase in cobalt price stability [5]. - Companies less affected by DRC policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Likin Resources, as well as low-cost producers like Luoyang Moly, are recommended for investment [5].