自然堂港股IPO被指吃老本？ 95%营收源自单一品牌 6成收入做营销难破解营收增长困局

Core Viewpoint - Chando, a well-known Chinese beauty brand, is facing significant challenges as it prepares for its IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, including sluggish revenue growth, high marketing costs, and a heavy reliance on a single brand for revenue generation [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Chando's revenue growth is weak, with projected revenues of 4.292 billion, 4.442 billion, and 4.601 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, reflecting growth rates of less than 4%, which is significantly lower than the average growth rate of the domestic beauty industry during the same period [2][4]. - The adjusted net profit for Chando is expected to drop by 34.92% to 203 million yuan in 2024, indicating a substantial decline in profitability [2][4]. - Compared to leading domestic competitors, Chando's performance is notably poor, with its revenue growth of only 3.48% and 3.58% in 2023 and 2024, while competitors like Proya and Shiseido show much higher growth rates [4]. Group 2: Brand Dependency - Chando heavily relies on its main brand, which accounted for 94.6%, 95.9%, and 95.4% of its revenue from 2022 to 2024, with a continued high dependency of 94.9% in the first half of 2025 [6][7]. - This over-reliance on a single brand poses risks, as any market fatigue or negative publicity could severely impact revenue [7]. Group 3: Marketing and R&D Expenditure - Chando's marketing expenses are substantial, consuming around 57% to 59% of its annual revenue from 2022 to 2025, with total marketing costs of 2.445 billion, 2.406 billion, and 2.716 billion yuan in the respective years [10]. - Despite high marketing costs, the effectiveness is questionable, as the company has seen a decline in R&D investment, with expenditures dropping from 120 million yuan in 2022 to 40 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a decreasing percentage of revenue from 2.8% to 1.7% [12][14]. - The company's strategy of relying heavily on marketing without sufficient product innovation or brand diversification has led to a "high marketing, low growth" dilemma [14].