冷冬概率增加，煤炭需求旺盛，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）盘中涨超2%

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a cold winter in 2025 is likely to increase coal demand in November and December, supported by favorable policies and market conditions that may drive up coal prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Demand Factors - The forecast of a cold winter due to a potential double La Niña event in 2025 is expected to boost coal demand during the winter months [1][3]. - The China Electricity Council anticipates a year-on-year increase of 5% to 6% in national electricity consumption for 2025, driven by higher demand in the second half of the year [3]. - The coal sector is experiencing positive developments, including government measures to regulate price competition, which may enhance market stability and support price increases [3][5]. Group 2: Supply Factors - The entry of safety inspection teams in November is expected to address safety issues related to overproduction in the coal sector, potentially leading to a reduction in coal supply [4]. - The anticipated decrease in coal production due to safety checks and adverse weather conditions is expected to tighten supply, further supporting coal prices [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market (515220) has seen a significant increase, with a scale exceeding 12 billion yuan, making it an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the coal sector [1][7]. - The coal sector is characterized by high dividend yields, with the index tracking a dividend yield of over 5.3% in the past 12 months, enhancing its appeal in a declining interest rate environment [7].