9月居民短期贷款下滑明显，消费贷贴息提振效果并未显现，市场憧憬政策加码

Core Insights - The financial data for September indicates a significant decline in short-term loans for residents, with a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, raising concerns in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Loan Policy - The recently implemented consumer loan interest subsidy policy has shown varied responses across different regions, with stronger demand in central provincial capitals and most second-tier cities compared to coastal and first-tier cities [1]. - The policy allows for a 1% annual interest subsidy on certain consumer loans, potentially reducing the cost to around 2.0% [1]. - Analysts believe that the consumer loan subsidy policy has not yet fully taken effect, and if consumer demand remains weak, there may be a possibility of further policy enhancements or expansions [1][5]. Group 2: Loan Data Analysis - The People's Bank of China reported that the new social financing scale for September was 35,338 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [2]. - The new RMB loans amounted to 12,900 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 300 billion yuan, slightly below market forecasts [2]. - The short-term loans for residents in September were only 1,421 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year decline of 127.9 billion yuan, indicating a persistent weakness in consumer credit demand [2][3]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Market participants are leaning towards expectations of further policy support to stimulate consumption, as the current subsidy policy has not significantly impacted consumer demand [5]. - Analysts suggest that stronger monetary policy support may be necessary to boost consumption, including potential reductions in mortgage rates [5]. - There is an openness to local financial institutions participating in consumption subsidies, contingent on local government funding support [6].