Crude Prices Pressured by US-China Trade Tensions and Robust Global Oil Supplies

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices have retreated, with crude reaching a 5.25-month low due to escalating US-China trade tensions and an IEA forecast of a record global oil glut of 4.0 million bpd for 2026 [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The US-China trade conflict has intensified, leading to a risk-off sentiment in asset markets, which negatively impacts crude prices [2][3] - Cooling tensions in the Middle East have reduced the risk premium in crude prices, further contributing to the decline as the likelihood of supply disruptions decreases [3] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - OPEC+ has agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 bpd in crude production starting in November, which is below market expectations, while also planning to reverse a previous production cut of 2.2 million bpd [4] - Russia's crude production has been affected by Ukrainian attacks on refineries, limiting its export capabilities and supporting oil prices [5]