恐慌指数飙升点燃避险潮 金银铂钯共振齐升

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged to a historic high of over $4,200 per ounce, driven by escalating tensions in US-China relations and market expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold reached a peak of $4,218.33 per ounce, while silver saw a 3.2% increase, reflecting tight supply conditions in the London market [1]. - The US Treasury yields fell to multi-month lows as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a 0.25% rate cut this month, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid rising risk aversion [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The cumulative increase in precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, ranged from 59% to 83% this year, leading the global commodity market [3]. - Central banks' continued accumulation of gold, increased holdings in gold ETFs, and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed have contributed to the rising demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation risks [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Traders are betting on a dovish stance from the Fed, which has led to increased positions in precious metals, pushing gold prices to new highs [4]. - If gold maintains above the key resistance level of $4,170 - $4,180, it is likely to continue rising towards the $4,200 target [4]. - Silver is attempting to break through the resistance level of $53.40 - $53.60, and a successful breakout could lead to testing the psychological level of $55.00 [4]. - Platinum prices have also seen an uptick, with potential upward movement if it breaks the $1,680 resistance level [4].