“存款搬家”背后原因找到了

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a significant increase in RMB deposits in the first three quarters, totaling 22.71 trillion yuan, with non-bank financial institutions seeing a rise of 4.81 trillion yuan [1] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects residents reallocating their savings based on changes in asset returns, rather than a straightforward shift to the stock market [1][2] - Non-bank deposits have been growing rapidly, primarily due to the increased use of time deposits and interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 1: Deposit Trends - In September, non-bank deposits showed a notable decline, contrasting with the previous months' high growth rates, while household deposits surged by nearly 3 trillion yuan from August [1] - The increase in non-bank deposits does not necessarily indicate a rise in funds flowing into brokerage firms, as significant growth in interbank deposits from banks' wealth management subsidiaries and insurance asset management can also inflate non-bank deposit figures [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The high growth in non-bank deposits during July and August was previously interpreted as a sign of residents moving funds into the stock market, but this view is now considered overly simplistic [2] - Despite a strong performance in the A-share market in September, the corresponding deposit data showed a significant drop in non-bank deposits and a rebound in household deposits [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Insights - Banks are increasingly relying on non-bank deposits and interbank certificates of deposit to expand their liabilities, especially during periods of slower growth in household deposits [3] - The issuance of government bonds and special bonds in July and August created a need for banks, particularly local banks, to increase their liabilities despite stagnant household deposit growth [3] Group 4: Wealth Management Products - The total scale of bank wealth management products decreased by 128.47 billion yuan at the end of September compared to August, falling to 30.82 trillion yuan [4] - Sales of equity-linked products have seen a slight increase, but there has not been a significant surge in overall fund product sales [5] - Products linked to indices are more popular, while those directly targeting specific stock market sectors are less favored [6]