解码民航需求创新高背后的盈利难题 AI能否改写行业剧本？——访国际航协北亚区副总裁解兴权

Core Insights - The Chinese civil aviation market has seen record-high passenger volumes during the recent summer and National Day holidays, indicating strong market demand despite profitability challenges [1][2] - The industry is experiencing a "volume increase without profit," highlighting the complex environment of rapid growth coupled with profitability pressures [1][3] Market Demand and Growth - The Chinese civil aviation passenger volume is projected to reach 730 million in 2024, a 10.6% increase compared to 2019 [2] - In the first half of 2025, passenger volume is expected to grow by 21% compared to 2019, with summer passenger numbers reaching 147 million, a 3.6% year-on-year increase [2] - The National Association predicts that over the next 20 years, the Asia-Pacific region will see significant growth, with China contributing to half of the projected 4 billion additional passengers [2] Profitability Challenges - The global airline industry's profitability is low, with an expected average profit margin of 3.5% in 2025, and even lower for Asia-Pacific airlines, which are projected to improve from 1.6% in 2024 to 1.9% [3][4] - Chinese airlines are expected to achieve only 17% of their 2019 profit levels in 2024, with average economy class ticket prices still below 2019 levels due to high competition from rail services and rapid capacity growth [4] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Development - The International Air Transport Association (IATA) is actively promoting the development of SAF, with 16 projects in mainland China, 8 of which are already operational [5] - By 2025, SAF production capacity in China is expected to reach 1 million tons, increasing to 2 million tons by 2026, although this remains small relative to airline demand [5] - Key recommendations for SAF development include stable policy support for large-scale production, diversification of raw materials, and global cooperation on regulations and certifications [6] Impact of AI on the Aviation Industry - AI is transforming the aviation sector by enhancing efficiency through data utilization, which can optimize fuel emissions and flight planning [7] - AI contributes to safety improvements, such as predictive analysis to avoid turbulence risks, thereby enhancing passenger experience and reducing fuel consumption [7] - The industry is encouraged to embrace new technologies and adapt to changing market conditions, emphasizing a shift from reactive to proactive safety management [8]