Jing Ji Ri Bao·2025-10-16 06:23Core Viewpoint - Recent international copper prices have drawn attention, with LME copper futures nearing $11,000 per ton, indicating a potential new price floor and strategic value reassessment in the copper market [1][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global copper supply is facing significant disruptions due to production issues at major mines, including the Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared "force majeure" and anticipates a 35% drop in output by 2026, equating to a loss of approximately 270,000 tons of copper [1][2] - Other mines, such as Escondida in Chile and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, are also experiencing operational challenges, further tightening global copper supply [2] - The International Copper Study Group has revised its global mine production growth forecast for this year down from 2.3% to 1.4% due to these supply constraints [4] Demand Drivers - There is a surge in demand for copper driven by several factors, including the rise of artificial intelligence leading to increased data center construction, rising defense spending, and the acceleration of global electrification [4] - Goldman Sachs has characterized copper as "the new oil," emphasizing its critical role in AI and energy security, with expectations of a 70% increase in global copper demand by 2050 [4] Strategic Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy also impacts copper prices; a weaker dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts enhance copper's investment appeal, leading to a shift of funds from bonds to physical commodities like copper [5] Short-term Price Outlook - The current market conditions suggest that copper prices are likely to rise in the short term due to supply shocks, especially as the market enters the traditional consumption peak season [6] - The supply tightness is expected to persist, making significant price declines unlikely unless an economic crisis occurs [6] Medium-term Price Challenges - For a substantial price rally to occur, demand must align with supply constraints; historical price surges have been linked to significant demand increases, which may not be replicated in the current environment [7] - While short-term price increases are anticipated, breaking through the high points of May 2024 will require stronger demand drivers [8]