煤炭行业淡季不淡，全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）午后领涨超3%，规模超120亿元

Supply - Coal imports have continued to decline year-on-year, with a monthly decrease of 23% in September and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [1] - Domestic production is expected to remain constrained in Q4 due to stricter safety regulations and capacity verification documents [1] Demand - Despite being traditionally a low-demand season, hydropower generation has experienced negative growth from April to August due to ongoing drought conditions [1] - A peak demand season is anticipated in Q4, with significant cooling in northern regions, leading to an early start of heating in Taiyuan on October 19 [1] - Supply and demand are expected to remain tight [1] Q3 Profitability - The coal industry is projected to see improved performance in Q3, with potential early capital positioning [1] Dividends - The current dividend yield of the China Securities Coal Index stands at 4.99%, which may attract further capital inflow due to market risk aversion [1] - Since September, coal ETFs have attracted over 2 billion [1]