做多贵金属窗口开启 降息与避险构成双重逻辑支撑

Group 1 - Gold prices have experienced a strong five-day rally, reaching record highs during the Asian session on October 16, driven by increased risk aversion due to U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1] - Silver prices adjusted to $53.10 after a spike, attributed to profit-taking, but remain resilient due to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Forecasts suggest gold prices could reach $4,400 by the end of 2025 and peak at $4,600 by June 2026, while silver is expected to rise to $57.50 in the same timeframe [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has called for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, supporting two more cuts within the year, while the Beige Book indicates a decline in consumer spending and weak labor demand, reinforcing expectations for monetary easing [2] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, with multiple flashpoints including U.S. actions in Venezuela, instability in the Middle East, and a nationwide blackout in Ukraine, contributing to increased market demand for safe-haven assets [2] - Despite a ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan providing some localized relief, global risk premiums continue to rise [2] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for precious metals is expected to continue a pattern of oscillating upward movement, supported by both Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks [3] - Gold's safe-haven and financial attributes are likely to remain prominent, while silver is anticipated to have greater elastic potential due to its industrial demand and investment characteristics [3] - Technically, gold is expected to face resistance around $4,400 after breaking and stabilizing above $4,200, while silver may test the $54 mark after surpassing $52 [3]