Target Is Down 35% in 2025. Is This a Once-in-a-Lifetime Buying Opportunity Before the Stock Goes Parabolic?

Core Viewpoint - Target's stock has significantly underperformed, dropping 35.3% year-to-date compared to a 13.1% gain in the S&P 500, raising questions about whether this presents a buying opportunity for long-term investors [1][2]. Economic Challenges - The challenging economic environment has negatively impacted Target's sales, with same-store sales dropping 1.9% in the fiscal second quarter ending August 2 [5]. - High prices and a weakening U.S. economy, along with changing tariff policies, have contributed to the sluggish performance of many retailers, including Target, as reflected in the S&P 500 Retail index, which rose only 0.4% year-to-date [4]. Management Issues - Management missteps, including a lack of differentiating merchandise and a reduction in diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives, have led to a decline in comparable sales [6][8]. - Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke has acknowledged these issues and plans to improve store quality, offer trendier merchandise, and invest in technology, indicating a return to the company's successful roots [7][9]. Market Reaction and Valuation - Despite the challenges, the stock is considered to have an attractive valuation, trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 10, down from 15 at the beginning of the year, and significantly lower than the S&P 500's P/E of 31 [10]. - Management forecasts a low-single-digit percentage decline in sales for the year but expects adjusted earnings per share to range from $7 to $9, compared to $8.86 in 2024, suggesting potential for upside as the company improves sales and profit growth [11].