鲁股观察｜同比净利预增超28倍！先达股份前三季业绩“狂飙”

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Xianda Agricultural Chemical Co., Ltd. expects a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, projecting a net profit of 180 million to 205 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2807.87% to 3211.74%. However, there are signs of weakening growth momentum as the third-quarter net profit is expected to decline by 39% to 61% quarter-on-quarter, raising concerns about the sustainability of the company's performance [1][3][4]. Financial Performance - The company anticipates achieving a net profit of 180 million to 205 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a substantial increase from the previous year's 619.01 thousand yuan [1][3]. - Excluding non-recurring gains and losses, the expected net profit for the first three quarters is projected to be 171 million to 196 million yuan, compared to a loss of 259.18 thousand yuan in the same period last year [3][4]. Quarterly Trends - Historical data indicates that the company's net profit for the first quarter of 2025 was 21.69 million yuan, which increased to 114 million yuan in the second quarter. However, the third-quarter net profit is expected to decline significantly [3][4]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings forecast announcement, the company's stock price rose by 3.06% to 10.09 yuan, with a trading volume of 848 million yuan. The total market capitalization is approximately 4.39 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.12 [3][4]. Product Performance - The significant year-on-year growth in performance is attributed to the sharp increase in the market price of the main product, Acetochlor, and the sales of the newly developed product series, Pyrazole Acetochlor, which have contributed to the improvement in gross margin [3][4]. Price Fluctuations - The price of Acetochlor has seen substantial fluctuations, rising from 76 thousand yuan per ton at the beginning of the year to 147.5 thousand yuan per ton by mid-June, largely due to supply constraints from a major supplier [4][6]. - Recently, the price of Acetochlor has decreased to around 110 thousand yuan per ton, indicating potential challenges for the company's profitability [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented operational reforms and cost control measures to enhance efficiency and motivate various units within the organization [6]. - The development of a product matrix centered around Quinclorac, Pyrazole Acetochlor, and Phenylpropionic Acid is seen as a strategic response to mitigate risks associated with price volatility of single products [6].