对话世界黄金协会研究负责人：今年金价已创45次新高，但市场尚未饱和

Core Insights - Despite gold reaching 45 historical highs this year, speculative positions in the futures market have not reached historical peaks, indicating that the market is not saturated and there is still room for additional capital inflow [1][4] - The recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing $4,000 after breaking the $3,500 mark, is driven by macroeconomic factors, including rising economic uncertainty and the dual attributes of gold as a hedge against inflation and a safe haven [1][3] Market Dynamics - The four main factors driving gold prices are economic expansion levels, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost (interest rates), and market momentum [3] - The current environment of expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, projected to be at least 50 basis points this year, lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold, enhancing its appeal as a non-yielding asset [3][4] Institutional Behavior - Global gold-backed ETFs have increased their gold holdings by over 600 tons this year, with a projected total of 780 tons when including 2024's additions, which provides significant market support but is still below historical bull market cycles [4][5] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net acquisition of 166 tons in Q2, indicating sustained demand despite a year-on-year decrease [4][6] Strategic Value of Gold - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic asset for portfolio diversification, with recommendations suggesting it should constitute around 15% of investment portfolios to hedge against risks associated with credit assets [6][7] - The rising gold prices have led to a growing recognition of its critical role in investment strategies, with some investors adopting a "gold+" strategy to enhance portfolio stability [7][8]