深度丨光伏组件退役回收行业遇“饥荒”，小作坊、贵金属贸易商争抢货源 乱局何解？

Core Insights - The photovoltaic recycling industry in China faces a dual challenge of underutilized capacity and a shortage of sources for retired components, despite a projected market worth hundreds of billions in the coming decades [1][2][10] - The government is urged to implement policies to regulate recycling qualifications and manage small workshops that disrupt the market [1][10] Group 1: Market Potential and Challenges - The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) predicts that by 2030, retired photovoltaic components in China will reach 1.5 million tons, increasing to over 2 million tons by 2050 [1] - The cumulative market size for photovoltaic recycling in China is expected to reach 26 billion yuan by 2030 and exceed 420 billion yuan by 2050 [1] - The number of qualified recycling companies in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region is limited, with many unable to operate at full capacity [2] Group 2: Supply Chain Issues - The retired component supply issue is a core challenge for the recycling industry, with the expected volume of retired components in 2024 being around 80,000 tons, while existing capacity far exceeds this amount [2] - Factors contributing to the reduced supply include low operational rates of production companies and a slowdown in ground station construction due to incomplete infrastructure [2][4] Group 3: Recycling Methods and Technologies - The industry is adopting a "cascade utilization + dismantling and regeneration" approach to maximize the value of retired components [5][6] - For intact components, companies prefer cascade utilization, exporting to markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where second-hand components are in demand [5] - For damaged components, dismantling is necessary, with companies like Ruise Environmental Technology employing advanced methods such as high-pressure jet milling and pyrolysis to recover materials [6][7] Group 4: Economic Factors and Pricing - The price of recycled materials significantly impacts company profits, with glass making up 70% of component weight and its price dropping from 1,300 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton recently [9] - The current price of raw polysilicon is below 50 yuan/kg, making recycled silicon economically unviable unless raw prices rise to 90 yuan/kg [9] - Silver, which constitutes about 4‰ of component weight, remains a key profit source for recycling companies due to its high market price [9] Group 5: Regulatory and Market Dynamics - Small workshops are identified as major disruptors in the industry, lacking proper environmental assessments and using harmful methods that pollute the environment [10][11] - The absence of standardized pricing and regulations complicates the market, with companies relying on experience for pricing estimates [11][12] - Recommendations include establishing a lifecycle traceability platform and a whitelist for qualified recycling companies to ensure compliance and reduce illegal operations [12]