法国总理侥幸闯关不信任投票 欧债市场重拾信心

Core Viewpoint - The reappointment of French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu and the suspension of a controversial pension reform have alleviated political tensions, positively impacting the European bond market, particularly French government bonds [1][2][8] Group 1: Political Developments - Lecornu survived two significant no-confidence votes, with the first motion receiving only 271 votes, failing to reach the required 289 for his resignation, and the second motion garnering 144 votes [1] - The Socialists in the French Parliament have pledged support for Lecornu's government after he promised to suspend the pension law that aimed to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 starting in 2023 [2][5] - The current political landscape in France is characterized by a "hung parliament" and a minority government, leading to increased uncertainty in legislative and budgetary processes [5][6] Group 2: Economic Implications - The suspension of the pension reform is expected to incur significant financial costs, estimated at approximately €400 million (about $465 million) next year and around €1.8 billion by 2027 [2] - The spread between French and German 10-year government bond yields, a key market risk indicator, narrowed to 78 basis points, indicating a reduction in selling pressure on French bonds [1][8] - The CAC 40 index rose by 0.8%, outperforming other European stock indices, reflecting improved market sentiment following the political developments [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The recent political stability has provided a temporary reprieve for the European bond market, which had been experiencing significant selling pressure [7][8] - Investors remain cautious, focusing on upcoming budget negotiations and sovereign debt rating risks, as the long-term outlook for the European bond market remains uncertain [8]