深度 | 奢侈品股价暴涨，市场太乐观了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The luxury goods market is showing signs of recovery, as evidenced by LVMH's third-quarter earnings report, which exceeded analyst expectations and marked a potential turning point for the sector [3][5]. Group 1: LVMH Performance - LVMH reported a 4% year-on-year decline in revenue to €18.2 billion, but achieved organic growth of 1%, significantly surpassing analyst forecasts [3][5]. - Following the earnings release, LVMH's stock surged by 12%, pushing its market capitalization above €300 billion, making it the highest-valued company in France [3]. - The positive performance of LVMH has led to a rally in the luxury goods sector, with notable stock increases for brands like Hermès (7.4%), Richemont (6.3%), Kering (4.8%), Moncler (7.8%), and Prada (7.7%) [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Analyst Insights - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Bernstein indicated that the worst may be over for LVMH, viewing it as a key indicator for the luxury market's recovery [5]. - Citigroup's analyst noted that LVMH's management is addressing structural issues in key fashion brands and the wine and spirits business, while also focusing on cost control and increased brand investment [5]. - Bernstein highlighted that all business segments of LVMH outperformed expectations, particularly the fashion and leather goods division, benefiting from a recovery in local consumption in China and strong demand in the U.S., Southeast Asia, and the Middle East [5]. Group 3: Chinese Market Dynamics - LVMH's CFO stated that the Chinese market returned to positive growth in Q3, with mid to high single-digit growth, despite a decline in overseas consumption [7]. - However, the overall global consumption of LVMH products by Chinese consumers remains in single-digit negative growth, indicating a continued decrease in luxury spending intentions [7]. - The recovery in the Chinese market is largely attributed to the return of domestic consumption as outbound travel decreases, rather than a fundamental improvement in consumer sentiment [7]. Group 4: Industry Challenges and Future Outlook - The luxury sector faces structural challenges, with many brands struggling to reignite widespread consumer interest despite recent positive narratives [9]. - The upcoming changes in creative leadership and product launches are uncertain, as the time lag between fashion shows and retail sales can be significant [9]. - The luxury market is also experiencing competition from emerging local brands in China, which are increasingly challenging established European brands [10][11].