Core Viewpoint - China has initiated reciprocal measures against the U.S. 301 investigation to promote corrections from the U.S. and the exemption clauses are expected to help maintain the competitiveness of China's shipbuilding industry [1][2] Group 1: Reciprocal Measures - China will impose special port fees on U.S.-owned, operated, or built vessels docking at Chinese ports starting October 14, 2025, with a fee of 400 RMB per net ton, which is higher than the U.S. fee of 50 USD per net ton [2] - The reciprocal measures aim to maintain a fair competitive environment in international shipping and shipbuilding, countering the discriminatory practices of the U.S. [2] Group 2: Impact on Shipping Industry - The increase in non-industry costs on the U.S. routes may not lead to significant industry-wide cost increases, as companies may adjust their operations to mitigate impacts [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Transport has initiated an impact investigation, which may lead to compensatory measures to alleviate pressure on Chinese shipping companies [3] Group 3: Effects on Oil and Bulk Shipping - The reciprocal measures will extend to oil and bulk shipping, potentially leading to a reduction in effective capacity and increased freight rates [4] - Approximately 15% of oil tankers and 4% of bulk carriers are owned or operated by U.S. listed companies, which may face significant operational costs due to the new fees [4] - The expected increase in oil transportation rates is projected to be higher than market expectations, driven by the supply-demand dynamics and the ongoing rigidity in tanker supply [4]
国泰海通:对等反制或致局部有效运力缩减 油运市场预期有望景气上行