The copper supply-demand balance is under strain as crisis looms

Group 1: Copper Demand Trends - Global copper demand has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% over the past two decades, rising from 16.7 million tonnes in 2004 to 28.5 million tonnes in 2024 [2] - Future projections indicate that global copper demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.8%, reaching 35.1 million tonnes by 2030, driven by urbanization, infrastructure expansion, industrialization, and the energy transition [2] - The demand for copper is significantly influenced by its role in renewable energy infrastructure and the electrification of various sectors, including electric vehicles and data centers [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Disruptions - Recent supply chain disruptions have highlighted vulnerabilities, including an accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine, which produced 815,000 tonnes in 2024, accounting for 4% of global production [3] - Other notable disruptions include production cuts at Teck's Quebrada Blanca facility in Chile and flooding at Ivanhoe Mines' Kamoa-Kakula mine in the DRC, leading to a 25% production reduction at Codelco's El Teniente mine due to an earthquake [3][4] - The UN has warned that copper shortages could impede the energy transition, estimating that $250 billion in investment and at least 80 new mining projects are necessary to meet future demand [4] Group 3: Production Gains - Some regions, including Zambia, Chile, Mongolia, the DRC, and Peru, have reported production gains, with specific assets like Mopani, Oyu Tolgoi, and Las Bambas showing increases [4] - Despite these gains, the overall outlook remains cautious due to the potential impact of supply chain disruptions and the need for significant investment to meet rising demand [4]