美联储降息路径现分歧：沃勒主张渐进式25基点步伐，米兰坚持50基点激进宽松

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are considering a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with Christopher Waller advocating for a 25 basis point reduction to support a weak labor market, while Stephen Milan supports a larger cut of 50 basis points [1][2] - Jerome Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point cut at the upcoming meeting, marking the second cut this year in response to slowing job growth, although inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target [1][2] - Milan emphasized the need for rapid monetary policy easing due to escalating US-China trade tensions, suggesting that maintaining current restrictive levels could exacerbate negative economic impacts [2] Group 2 - Waller highlighted conflicting data regarding economic growth and labor market weakness, suggesting that the Fed should focus on labor market conditions while monitoring inflation trends [3] - He indicated that a government shutdown could reduce GDP growth by several percentage points, but a resolution could lead to a rebound in early 2026 [3] - Waller is considered a potential candidate to succeed Powell as Fed Chair, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet narrowing the candidate list to five [3][4]