万家基金贺方舟：白银价格理论上仍有较大上行空间

Core Viewpoint - The recent strength in silver prices is supported by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand dynamics, and the gold-silver ratio recovery [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Factors - The Federal Reserve began a rate-cutting cycle in September, leading to strong market expectations for multiple rate cuts within the year, enhancing the attractiveness of precious metals like silver [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have led to an influx of safe-haven investments into silver, which is often referred to as "the poor man's gold," resulting in both speculative and institutional capital inflows that have driven prices past historical key levels [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach a historical record of 120 million ounces by 2025, with industrial demand accounting for over 50% of this figure [1] - The photovoltaic industry is identified as a core driver of silver demand, with global solar installation capacity expected to reach 655 GW by 2025, and silver paste consumption in solar applications representing 25% of total demand [1] - Additional demand from sectors such as electric vehicles and 5G technology further supports the long-term fundamentals for silver [1] Group 3: Gold-Silver Ratio Recovery - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from 106 in April to 85, yet remains above the historical average range of 40-80, indicating significant potential for silver to catch up [1] - Should gold prices continue to rise and the gold-silver ratio move towards its historical mean, silver theoretically has considerable upside potential [1]