Core Insights - The latest economic data indicates a significant contraction in service sector activity in the New York region, marking the steepest decline in over four years, which reflects a broader downturn in U.S. business activity and employment levels [1][2] - Following the unexpected weakness in the New York Fed's service sector activity index, the futures market has rapidly increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, pricing in two consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1][5] - The New York Fed's service sector data is crucial for investors to gauge the U.S. economy and the market's expectations for Fed rate cuts, especially during a period of data delays due to the federal government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Service Sector Activity - The New York Fed's composite index for service sector activity fell by 4.2 points to -23.6, the lowest reading since January 2021, indicating ongoing contraction in business activity [2] - Employment indicators within the survey have contracted for two consecutive months, suggesting a deteriorating view of the business environment [2] - Despite rising input costs reported by businesses, service price growth is slowing, and the outlook for the next six months remains subdued [2] Group 2: Broader Economic Context - The slowdown in the U.S. labor market has become a consensus view, with hiring activities reported to be slowing, yet the economy has not entered a phase of sustained negative growth [4] - Recent consumer spending data, along with PCE and GDP revisions, suggest that the labor market has not significantly worsened, supporting the notion of a "Goldilocks" economic scenario [5] - The expectation of further rate cuts by the Fed is bolstered by high-frequency data indicating a sharp decline in service sector sentiment and ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [5][6]
纽约联储服务业指数创四年新低！即便非农与CPI缺席 降息预期仍在升温
智通财经网·2025-10-16 14:08