M1与M2剪刀差明显收敛 9月末社融存量同比增8.7%

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [1] - The increase in social financing is significantly supported by accelerated government bond issuance and improved corporate bond and equity financing channels [4] Monetary Policy and Financing - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.38 trillion yuan at the end of September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][8] - The weighted average interest rate for new corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, indicating a generally abundant supply of credit resources [3][5] Social Financing Growth - In the first three quarters, the incremental social financing totaled 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4] - Government bonds played a crucial role in supporting social financing, with net financing of 11.46 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [4] Credit Supply and Demand - By the end of September, the balance of RMB loans was 270.39 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5] - The low interest rates indicate a high level of credit resource supply, meeting the financing needs of the real economy effectively [6][7] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The recent increase in M1, which reached 113.15 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, signals a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [8] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects residents reallocating their savings into higher-yielding assets, influenced by changing interest rates and market conditions [9]