环渤海动力煤综合平均价格涨幅扩大

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in coal prices is driven by a combination of supply constraints, resilient demand, and expectations for winter stockpiling [1][2]. Supply Side - The Qinhuangdao coal price index reported a price of 680 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3 yuan per ton [1]. - Post-holiday supply factors include rainfall affecting coal production, concentrated maintenance on the Daqin line reducing port shipments, price inversions, and lack of shipping enthusiasm, leading to a significant decrease in coal supply [1]. - The average daily coal intake at nine ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.482 million tons, a 20% decrease compared to the previous cycle [1]. Demand Side - In the first half of October, despite the traditional consumption off-season, southern regions experienced high temperatures, resulting in power plants' daily coal consumption being 15% to 20% higher year-on-year [1]. - Some power plants released demand for replenishment post-holiday, coinciding with shipping disruptions that caused minor imbalances in coal supply and demand, providing support for coal prices [1]. Future Outlook - The upward trend in coal prices is expected to accelerate beyond market expectations in the short term [2]. - As high temperatures in southern regions subside and the market digests the post-holiday demand increase, the sentiment of holding onto coal stocks may weaken, leading to a gradual reduction in price support [2]. - It is anticipated that coal prices will stabilize and trend towards oscillation in late October [2].