Yahoo Financeยท2025-10-15 11:00Core Insights - TotalEnergies anticipates an increase in earnings and cash flow for Q3 2025 despite a $10 per barrel decline in oil prices, driven by higher oil and gas production and a significant rise in refining margins [1][5]. Production and Performance - TotalEnergies expects its oil and gas production for Q3 2025 to reach 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), marking a 4% year-on-year increase, surpassing the annual and quarterly guidance of over 3% [2]. - The Exploration & Production (E&P) results and cash flow are projected to exceed the 4% production growth due to the positive impact of new barrels [3]. Downstream Results - The downstream segment's results and cash flow are expected to improve by $400 million to $600 million year-on-year, attributed to a rise in refining margins in Europe, which increased to $63 per ton from $15 per ton in Q3 2024 [4]. - Overall, despite the drop in oil prices, TotalEnergies forecasts that results and cash flow from business segments will increase within a range of 0 to 5% due to hydrocarbon production growth and improved downstream results [5]. Industry Context - Other supermajors, such as Shell, are also projecting strong third-quarter results despite the decline in oil prices, citing factors like strong gas trading, higher upstream production, and increased refining margins [6][7].