Crude Prices Undercut by Concerns of a Global Supply Glut

Core Insights - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to concerns over a global supply glut, with the IEA forecasting a record global oil glut of 4.0 million bpd for 2026 [1] - Mixed performance in crude and gasoline prices, with crude down and gasoline slightly up [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Crude oil prices fell to a 5.25-month low amid renewed trade tensions with China, which could negatively impact global economic growth and energy demand [2] - Cooling tensions in the Middle East have reduced risk premiums in crude prices, decreasing the likelihood of supply disruptions [2] Group 2: Supply Factors - An increase in crude oil held on stationary tankers rose by 8.9% week-over-week to 93.96 million barrels, indicating bearish sentiment for oil prices [3] - OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected increase in crude production targets, raising it by 137,000 bpd starting in November, which provided some support to prices [4] - Reduced crude exports from Russia due to Ukrainian attacks on refineries have limited Russia's export capabilities, with shipments averaging 1.88 million bpd in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5] - Iraq's agreement to resume oil exports from the Kurdish region could add 500,000 bpd to global supplies, which is bearish for crude prices [6]