White Brook Capital Partners Q3 2025 Commentary

Macro Economic Overview - The US economy shows resilience with growth driven by high-end consumer spending and significant capital expenditures in artificial intelligence [2] - Labor markets are softening, indicating potential for interest rate cuts in the near term [2] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Announced AI ecosystem deals have accelerated, with some viewed as "money good" while others may require significant equity issuances [3] - Concerns exist regarding a potential bubble in AI-related expenditures, drawing parallels to past fiber optic investments [3][4] - Companies in sectors supporting AI, such as quantum computing, are trading at elevated multiples despite limited revenue [4] Capital Markets and Investment Trends - Capital markets are open, benefiting small-cap stocks, while investment banking activity is viewed positively by bank executives [5] - Unusual trading activity around major events is noted as a negative market development [5] Consumer Behavior - High-income households are driving nearly all discretionary spending growth, although signs of a decline are emerging [6] - The housing market remains sluggish with high mortgage rates, but a recent dip may spur increased activity [6] Stock Market Dynamics - There is a notable disconnect between narrative-driven price action and intrinsic value in several market sectors [7] - Companies generating significant cash flow are struggling to attract investment, highlighting a challenging market environment [7] Ethical Investment Strategies - The Ethical S&P 500 Strategy has performed well, up 21.48% year-to-date compared to 24.63% for the S&P 500 [8] - The strategy excludes defense companies, appealing to investors seeking ethical investment options [9] Small & Micro Cap Strategy - The Small Cap Absolute Growth Strategy has exceeded expectations in its first year, focusing on small and micro-cap stocks with growth potential [11] - Notable gains include Rapid Micro Biosystems, Inc, which is up nearly 300% year-to-date [12] Company-Specific Insights - Tile Shop Holdings proposed a delisting at a price below intrinsic value, indicating a need for more home building activity to realize asset value [13] - Portillo's is undergoing leadership changes aimed at improving execution of its strategic vision [16]