Profit From AI Without The Tech Bubble Risk With Black Stone Minerals

Core Insights - The AI investment landscape is experiencing a significant influx of capital, with notable investments such as NVIDIA's $100 billion into OpenAI and a broader $500 billion initiative [2][3] - Identifying undervalued AI stocks is challenging in a market where many technology stocks are perceived as overvalued, yet opportunities still exist [3][4] Company Overview: Black Stone Minerals L.P. (BSM) - Black Stone Minerals is positioned to benefit from the increasing energy demand driven by AI data centers, with strong profitability and a favorable valuation compared to other tech stocks [4][5] - The company has a unique business model that allows it to generate revenue through leasing mineral and royalty interests without bearing the operational risks associated with drilling [24][25] Energy Demand and Natural Gas - The demand for energy from data centers is projected to surge, with McKinsey estimating $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures needed by 2030 to meet compute power demands [9] - Natural gas is becoming a preferred energy source for data centers due to its reliability and efficiency, with capacity factors for natural gas combined cycle systems averaging 60% to 80% [10][13] Natural Gas Production and Market Position - Black Stone Minerals holds mineral rights across 20+ million gross acres in the U.S., with significant exposure to major producing basins [19] - The company is expanding its natural gas production capacity through development agreements, aiming to double its drilling obligations over the next five years [21][22] Financial Performance - Black Stone Minerals generated $245 million in Core Earnings in the TTM ended 2Q25, with a consistent growth trajectory in revenue and earnings since 2015 [26] - The company has maintained strong free cash flow, totaling $1.9 billion since 2020, which supports capital returns to shareholders [28][29] Profitability and Shareholder Returns - Black Stone Minerals boasts industry-leading profitability metrics, with a NOPAT margin improvement from 48% in 2019 to 64% in the TTM [27][33] - The company has increased its regular distribution from $0.08/unit in 2Q20 to $0.30/unit in 3Q25, providing a yield of approximately 9.3% [34][35] Market Outlook and Valuation - Despite lower oil prices impacting sales, rising natural gas prices have offset these declines, with projections indicating further increases in natural gas prices [38][39] - The current stock price implies a significant margin deterioration, yet historical growth rates suggest potential for a 50%+ increase in share value [41][42]