推动资金从“停留账户”转向“投入市场”

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in M1 growth to 7.2% at the end of September indicates heightened liquidity and potential economic activity, although actual consumer and investment spending remains subdued and requires policy support for a sustainable recovery [1][2][3] Group 1: M1 Growth Dynamics - M1 growth has risen sharply, up 7.1 percentage points from its low in February, reflecting increased liquidity in the economy [1] - The rise in M1 is attributed to a low base effect from last year and short-term factors such as the return of funds from wealth management products and policy measures aimed at accelerating local government payments to businesses [2] - The transition of fixed-term deposits to demand deposits has also contributed to the M1 increase, as many high-interest fixed deposits have matured this year [2] Group 2: Market Implications - M1 growth is often viewed as an indicator of market liquidity, but the correlation with stock market activity may weaken as asset allocation channels diversify [2] - The reduction in opportunity costs for holding demand deposits and money market funds has led to an increase in non-bank deposits and M1, rather than direct inflows into the stock market [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - Sustained M1 growth reflects a trend towards more liquid deposits, but actual investment in the market depends on improved market expectations and a real recovery in domestic demand [3] - Continuous policy efforts to stimulate domestic demand and counter-cyclical adjustments are necessary to enhance economic momentum [3]