降息50基点？美联储，重大变数

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's future interest rate path has become uncertain, with increasing internal disagreements among its members regarding the pace and magnitude of potential rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan supports a 50 basis point rate cut in October, citing increased downside risks to the U.S. economy due to escalating trade tensions [2][4]. - Milan acknowledges that a 25 basis point cut is more likely in October, emphasizing that the disagreement among officials is more about the speed of cuts rather than the ultimate target [2]. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a cautious approach, suggesting a gradual reduction of rates by 25 basis points to assess the economic impact [5][6]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Reactions - Market traders are increasingly betting on at least one "extraordinary" 50 basis point cut by the Fed in the upcoming meetings, with a 97.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [1][8]. - Recent trading activity indicates a surge in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), reflecting traders' expectations for aggressive easing policies [8][9]. - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping to around 3.5%, indicating a bullish outlook among investors [9].