中金：从“中国游”到“中国购” 口岸消费能否从中受益？

Core Insights - The report from CICC highlights the rise of "China Travel" and "China Shopping" due to improved inbound policies and changes in tax refund policies, which are expected to drive growth in the domestic consumption market [1][2] Group 1: Inbound Travel Trends - The optimization of inbound policies has led to a rapid increase in "China Travel," with foreign visitor numbers showing a year-on-year growth of 28% [1] - By the second quarter of 2025, the overall inbound and outbound passenger numbers in mainland China are expected to recover to 96% of the levels seen in the second quarter of 2019 [1] - The average quarterly improvement in foreign visitor numbers has been approximately 5 percentage points since the first quarter of 2024 [1] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Spending - CICC estimates that the average spending of inbound travelers in China will be $714 in 2024, with a focus on quality experiences, particularly in accommodations [2] - There is significant potential for growth in shopping consumption among foreign visitors, especially for products with unique Chinese characteristics or price advantages, such as luxury goods and domestic electronics [2] - The optimization of tax refund policies in April 2025 is expected to significantly stimulate shopping consumption among inbound travelers [2] Group 3: Airport Consumption Dynamics - Airport consumption is anticipated to benefit slightly from "China Shopping," although there are still some bottlenecks that need to be addressed [2] - Both duty-paid and duty-free shopping at airports are expected to gain from the growth in inbound consumption, but the current impact on performance is limited [2] - Factors such as shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications may restrict the shopping experience for foreign visitors at airports [2]