Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-10-17 00:08Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities indicates that monetary easing in the fourth quarter may exceed expectations due to signs of economic weakening in the third quarter and the onset of a new policy waiting period [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - There are signs of weakening in the third quarter economic data, leading to a lack of consensus on interest rate cuts for the fourth quarter [1] - The challenges of low price levels and high real interest rates necessitate a potential reduction in rates [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - The government is expected to implement coordinated fiscal policies, with 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools accelerating deployment and around 1 trillion yuan in debt-related tools potentially being introduced in the fourth quarter [1] - The primary goals of monetary policy in the fourth quarter will focus on economic growth and full employment, suggesting that monetary easing may be more aggressive than anticipated [1] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - The central bank is likely to adopt a proactive approach to monetary easing, potentially implementing a 10-20 basis point interest rate cut to guide the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) downward, which would further reduce loan and deposit rates [1] - There is also a possibility of restarting government bond transactions as part of the monetary policy strategy [1]