Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-17 00:24Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a projected decline in bank wealth management scale by 850 billion yuan, reaching 32.11 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, primarily due to seasonal factors and short-term market dynamics [1] Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The bank wealth management scale is expected to decrease by 850 billion yuan to 32.11 trillion yuan by September 2025 [1] - The decline is attributed to seasonal withdrawal for parent bank assessments, increased cash demand from investors before the National Day holiday, and capital diversion to equity markets [1] - The drop is larger than the average decline of 660 billion yuan from 2018 to 2024 but lower than the average of 1.1 trillion yuan from 2023 to 2024 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - After October, the wealth management scale is anticipated to recover as the pressure from quarterly assessments eases and liquidity demand from the holidays decreases [1] - In the long term, the low-interest-rate environment suggests that "fixed income plus" wealth management products will remain a key growth driver for the scale [1] - The monthly scale in October is expected to rebound by over 1 trillion yuan, with the annual peak potentially exceeding 33.5 trillion yuan [1]