券商晨会精华 | 光伏“反内卷”成为当前行业核心矛盾 看好新技术迭代方向

Market Overview - The market experienced a pullback after a brief rally, with the three major indices briefly turning negative during the session. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.93 trillion, a decrease of 141.7 billion from the previous trading day, falling below 2 trillion again since September 10. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.25%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.38% [1]. Solar Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlighted that the core contradiction in the solar industry is currently "anti-involution," which is driving capacity elimination. The industry is still in a state of supply-demand imbalance, with significant progress made in addressing below-cost sales, leading to gradual price increases for silicon materials, wafers, and cells. However, module prices have limited short-term increases, and future pricing trends need close attention. The tightening of energy consumption standards for polysilicon is expected to be a key method for capacity elimination. The focus should be on capacity integration and industry-wide production control efforts, with a positive outlook on leading material companies and new technology directions such as BC, TOPCon3.0, and slurry [2]. Real Estate Market Analysis - Huatai Securities noted that the real estate cycle is currently in a "deep water zone," with a more favorable outlook for core cities represented by first-tier cities. Since mid-2021, the Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments, with a rapid clearing of supply. The year-on-year decline in transaction volume for commercial housing has gradually narrowed since mid-2025, indicating that the real estate cycle has entered a bottoming phase. Although housing prices are still in a bottoming process, the decline has narrowed since September, and with ongoing destocking efforts, a comprehensive recovery in the real estate market is expected to approach in the future [3]. Consumption Trends at Airports - CICC indicated that with the continuous optimization of inbound policies in recent years, "China shopping" is gradually emerging, providing new growth momentum for the domestic consumption market. Airport consumption may benefit slightly from "China shopping," particularly favoring large international airport hubs. However, some bottlenecks still need to be addressed. It is anticipated that both taxable and duty-free sales at airports will benefit from the growth trend in inbound consumption, although the current impact on performance is limited. In taxable commercial areas, airport businesses do not lack popular foreign goods, but shopping time, store layout, and tax refund qualifications may still pose certain restrictions. In the duty-free sector, while Chinese airport duty-free shops are dominated by cosmetics, the price advantage does not effectively drive foreign consumer spending, possibly related to their consumption habits [4].