智通财经网·2025-10-17 00:40Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a projected decline in bank wealth management scale by 850 billion yuan to 32.11 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, with expectations for recovery in October due to seasonal liquidity changes and the end of the holiday period [1][2]. Summary by Sections Bank Wealth Management Scale - As of September 2025, the bank wealth management scale is expected to decrease by 850 billion yuan to 32.11 trillion yuan, representing an approximate year-on-year growth of 8.5% compared to September 2024 [2]. - The decline in September is attributed to seasonal factors such as quarter-end reporting and increased cash demand during holidays, leading to temporary outflows from the wealth management market [2]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the withdrawal from wealth management is a normal seasonal fluctuation and not indicative of a shift to equity markets [3]. - Despite a bullish stock market from July to September, the wealth management sector has maintained stability due to prior valuation gains and a smoothing mechanism in trust products, mitigating the impact of bond market fluctuations [3]. October Outlook - In October, a significant recovery in wealth management scale is anticipated, with an expected increase of over 1 trillion yuan as liquidity pressures ease post-holiday [4]. - Historical data shows that the average month-on-month increase in wealth management scale for October from 2018 to 2024 is around 800 billion yuan, with an average growth rate of 3.19% [4]. Long-term Trends - The low interest rate environment is expected to continue driving the growth of "fixed income +" wealth management products, with an estimated annual growth of over 1.4 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to the overall wealth management scale [5]. - The bond market is currently in a low interest rate phase, and despite signs of economic stability, uncertainties remain, suggesting that the central tendency of bond yields will continue to decline [5].