大摩闭门会：市场现在过于乐观

Core Viewpoint - The current state of US-China trade relations is described as a "delicate and fragile balance," with the market underpricing potential risks and exhibiting overly optimistic sentiment, which is disconnected from the actual escalation of geopolitical risks [1] Market Performance - Since the escalation of tensions last Friday, the Hang Seng Index has seen a cumulative decline of less than 1%, indicating that investors generally believe both parties will return to negotiations and have not priced in potential negative scenarios [1] - Historical data shows that during previous significant escalations in US-China tensions, the MSCI China Index experienced valuation downgrades of up to 13% to 15%, suggesting that the current market calm lacks adequate risk consideration [1] Investor Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious of potential risks and adjust their strategies by focusing on three types of companies: 1. Companies in the technology sector that achieve self-sufficiency to better cope with technology blockade risks [3] 2. Companies with strong profit fundamentals that possess greater resilience to risks [3] 3. Companies aligned with the theme of avoiding excessive competition, capable of maintaining stable development in a complex market environment [3] - Key signals to monitor for worsening situations include specific details on retaliatory measures from both sides, potential cancellations of meetings, and the inclusion of more Chinese companies on the entity list by the US [3] Downside Risks - Risk Scenario 1: Implementation of restrictions could lead to market shocks, with China's new rare earth export controls tightening approval processes, particularly affecting the chip sector, which the market has not fully absorbed [4] - Risk Scenario 2: If restrictions become permanent policies, it could result in substantial "decoupling" in key supply chains, impacting the global economy and Chinese stock markets. The US is collaborating with allies to rebuild rare earth supply chains, which, while not immediately threatening China's position, poses a long-term risk that the market has not adequately considered [4] - Execution Risk of Agreements: Even if a "narrow agreement" is reached, such as pausing additional retaliatory tariffs, the execution of such agreements faces significant political and operational risks, with a high likelihood of being fragile. The market's optimistic expectations regarding this execution risk appear overly high [4]