【机构策略】预计四季度A股市场震荡上行的方向未发生改变

Group 1 - A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with strong performance in banking, automotive, communication equipment, and coal sectors, while precious metals, small metals, wind power equipment, and steel sectors underperformed [1] - Market policy expectations are rising, and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is expected to support the market [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports are anticipated to show a rebound in profit growth across most industries due to a low base from last year, which will strengthen market confidence [1] Group 2 - A-share market saw a pullback after reaching highs, with increased recession expectations in the U.S. due to government "shutdown" and missing key economic data, raising the probability of interest rate cuts in October [2] - Domestic indicators show a continuous expansion in the core CPI for five months, and a decline in social financing and credit growth compared to last year, indicating signs of economic weakness in Q3 [2] - The market is expected to maintain an upward trend amidst a backdrop of improving economic fundamentals in Q4, although recent trading volumes have decreased, suggesting a cautious shift in funding [2] Group 3 - A-share market showed reduced trading volume and fluctuations, with a focus on dividend stocks, while the storage chip sector remained active despite adjustments in other sectors like precious metals and semiconductors [3] - The ongoing global AI investment trend, domestic "anti-involution" leading to performance improvement expectations, and increased liquidity from household savings entering the market are key factors supporting the current bull market [3] - The expectation for the A-share market to trend upwards in Q4 remains unchanged, bolstered by improved global liquidity conditions from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [3]