TrendForce：政策或继续主导光伏行业价格走势 关注反内卷推进落地效果

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain is expected to stabilize prices despite short-term supply-demand challenges, influenced by anti-involution policies [1][2] Group 1: Polysilicon Segment - The overall inventory in the industry has risen to over 410,000 tons, with a slight accumulation trend in polysilicon inventory this month [1] - The market for polysilicon is currently quiet, with a decrease in order volume month-on-month [1] - Price stability is influenced by stable operating rates of wafer companies and limited new orders due to maintenance or production cuts from some polysilicon manufacturers [1] Group 2: Wafer Segment - Current wafer inventory is around 19 GW, with little change in total volume, primarily dominated by 210RN wafers [3] - There is significant pressure on shipments, leading to a downward shift in price focus, while demand for 183N wafers has seen a temporary decline [3] - The oversupply situation in the wafer market persists, with indications of increased production this month exacerbating the oversupply trend [3] Group 3: Cell Segment - Battery inventory has risen to about 7 days, with a slight accumulation trend due to reduced shipments during holidays and weak terminal demand [5] - Demand for 183N cells has decreased, while 210RN demand remains weak; however, domestic demand for 210N cells is relatively optimistic [5] - Price pressure is evident for 210RN and 183N cells, with potential for price adjustments, while 210N maintains a relatively balanced supply-demand relationship [6] Group 4: Module Segment - Overall terminal market demand is not optimistic, with a temporary decline in overseas installation demand and mixed production plans among module manufacturers [7] - Despite rising costs from upstream suppliers, terminal demand for modules remains weak, leading to limited price increases [7] - The impact of anti-involution policies will continue to be a key factor in determining industry price trends [7] Group 5: Price Trends - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable at high levels this month due to policy regulation, despite pressure from downstream markets [2] - Wafer prices are under pressure with risks of decline, although recent self-discipline meetings have provided some confidence for price stabilization [4] - Battery and module prices are also facing downward pressure, but the ongoing anti-involution policies may help stabilize prices in the longer term [6][7]