奥联服务港股IPO再闯关：高增长背后的现金流与区域集中风险

Core Viewpoint - Aolian Service Group Co., Ltd. has submitted a second IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, despite facing significant challenges such as high regional concentration, declining project renewal rates, and negative operating cash flow [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - Aolian Service has shown revenue growth from CNY 342 million in 2022 to CNY 476 million in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18%. Net profit increased from CNY 27.4 million to CNY 44.6 million, with a CAGR of about 27% [1]. - In the first seven months of 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 293 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and net profit of CNY 27.3 million, up 47.6% [1]. Business Structure - The primary revenue source for Aolian Service is commercial and urban space services, which have seen a decline in revenue share from 72.2% in 2022 to 59.7% by July 2025. Conversely, community living services have increased their share from 27.8% to 40.3% during the same period [1]. Regional Concentration - Aolian Service's revenue is heavily reliant on the Guangdong market, with over 40% of revenue coming from this region from 2022 to 2024, and 36.5% in the first seven months of 2025. This high regional concentration poses risks related to economic conditions and regulatory changes in Guangdong [2]. Project Renewal Rates - The renewal rate for community living service projects has declined from 90.5% in 2022 to 78.4% in 2023, further dropping to 74.7% in 2024. The renewal rate for commercial and urban space service agreements has also fluctuated, decreasing from 47.3% in 2022 to 29.7% in 2023, although it rebounded to 43.5% in 2024 [2]. Operating Cash Flow - Aolian Service has faced negative operating cash flow, with a net cash flow of -CNY 9.7 million in 2023 and -CNY 8.6 million in the first seven months of 2025. Trade receivables have surged from CNY 81 million at the end of 2022 to CNY 213 million by July 2025, representing a 163% increase [2]. Market Environment - The current market environment for property companies' IPOs is challenging, with only two successful listings in 2023 and 2024 each, and no successful listings in the first half of 2025. Aolian Service is the only company to have submitted a prospectus during this period [3]. - The IPO landscape has become more stringent, with increased scrutiny on profitability and business sustainability, making it difficult for even larger property companies to go public [3]. Expansion Strategy - Aolian Service plans to increase its project portfolio through acquisitions of third-party service providers in commercial and urban space services as well as community living services. However, the effectiveness of this strategy in addressing existing risks remains to be seen [4]. Shareholding Structure - The company's shareholding is highly concentrated, with the controlling shareholder, Su Tianpeng, holding approximately 99% of the voting rights. While this structure may enhance decision-making efficiency, it raises potential governance concerns [5].